Fire near Mpumalanga (ZA)

What the satellites measured

This fire was tracked from 3 October at 01:39 to 18 October at 01:16, that is 15 days, through 101 satellite detections. The detected extent reaches 1,133 ha.

Detected extent

1,133 ha

Cumulative power

2,183 MW

Peak power, one pixel

254 MW

VIIRS and MODIS detections

101

Estimated emissions

8.5 kt of carbon

Carbon burnt in the 0.1 degree cells (about 10 km) around the fire, from 5 October 2026 to 17 October 2026. An order-of-magnitude estimate from GFAS (ECMWF, Copernicus CAMS): it also counts neighbouring fires in the same cell. Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information (2026).

These four figures cover the polar orbits alone, the ones that measure an area. The pass table below also counts geostationary detections, more frequent but too coarse for geometry, and its power column sums a whole pass where the peak above is that of a single pixel.

“Detected extent” is not “burned area”: it is the union of the ground footprints of the satellite pixels, and a pixel counts in full (375 m for VIIRS, 1 km for MODIS) even when only a forest edge is burning. Compared with press figures it is in practice one and a half to three times the area reported. Detections taken at the edge of the scan swath, too coarse to measure anything at all, are excluded. These figures come from thermal detection and are not an official assessment: only the emergency services and the competent authorities are authoritative.

Replay how the fire spread

The map is framed on this fire's footprint and loads only its detections. The timeline below covers the period in which satellites saw it, from the first to the last detection, with twelve hours before and twenty-four after; the ticks on the bar mark the emergency services' announcements that fall within it. The cursor opens on the most powerful pass, and playback replays the whole fire in about thirty seconds. “1 h” shows what is burning within an hour of the chosen moment : the map then follows the power curve below and empties when it falls. “24 h” stacks twenty-four hours : a fire stays visible between two satellite passes, which come two to four times a day. Both are true, but they say different things.

How the radiative power evolved

One point per satellite pass: the sum of the fire radiative power measured over the fire. This is the curve that says whether the fire eased off or picked up again, which no cumulative figure shows. The window covers 17 days; beyond that, clustering would merge two successive fires in the same place.

Satellite passes in detail

8 other fires near Mpumalanga (ZA)

Separate fires, apart in time or in space, not pieces of this one. A single municipality can have several over one summer, and a forest massif often covers more than a hundred square kilometres.

• 21 to 22 October2,147 ha
• 21 to 22 October2,665 ha
• 19 to 22 October2,058 ha
• 17 to 21 October2,207 ha
• 14 to 20 October3,438 ha
• 14 to 19 October1,069 ha
• 12 to 20 October1,607 ha
• 8 to 9 October1,769 ha

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